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Interactive:

Interactive:

When not to check-fold when you missed the Flop

3) When you have the odds to call.

When you miss the flop, you are left in a situation where you a drawing. Your draws in this case are always pretty poor.

No Overcards

The worst case is when you don't have any overcards to the board.

Your Cards			The Board:

In this example, you are drawing to a four or a six, when there are three higher cards on the board. You hopes of winning are extremely poor, given if you hit a single four or a single six, you are still likely to lose.

Your only chance of winning would be runner-runner fours or sixes for trips, and that is such a long-shot its not worth considering. Fold.

One Overcard

One overcard to the board is a bit better.

Your Cards			The Board:

In this case, another Ace might give you the best hand. Unfortunately that only amounts to

....3 outs!

Three outs multiplied by 2.2 is a 6.6% chance of hitting an ace in the next card. (See Our discussion on odds for details about this)

We can use Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule to estimate the size of the pot needed to justify a call, if we assume an ace will win the hand for us. Lets say we are playing $1/2 stakes.

size of the pot

= (100 times the size of the call) divided by (chances of hitting an ace)

= 100 * $1 / 6.6 = $15.15

Thus, a call of $1 hoping for an ace is not worth it unless the pot is very big, over $15. And even then we don't know if our ace with a weak kicker will win! In actual fact, it may only win 50% of the time when you draw an ace, meaning we really need a $30 pot to make our call worthwhile!

Calling with one overcard is hardly ever justified.

Two Overcards

Two overcard to the board is the best "missed flop."

Your Cards			The Board:

In this case, another Ace might give you the best hand. Unfortunately that only amounts to

+ ....6 outs!

Six outs multiplied by 2.2 is a 13.2% chance of hitting an ace or a king in the next card. (See Our discussion on odds for details about this)

size of the pot in a $1/2 game needed to justify a call

= (100 times the size of the call) divided by (chances of hitting our overcards)

= 100 * $1 / 13.2 = $7.50

Thus, a 13.2% chance is not good enough to make a call of $1 unless the pot is pretty large, around $8.

And even if you hit an Ace or a King you are not guaranteed to win the hand...a straight, two pair or a set could beat you. So you need a pot much bigger than $8 to justify a call. Always think of this estimate as the bare minimum unless you are drawing to the nuts!

With two overcards you are drawing thin and need a large pot to make a draw worth while. Generally, you want the pot to be at least eight times the size of the call, probably more.

Added values

Your draw to two overcards can be improved slightly if you also have a backdoor flush or a backdoor straight to draw to. In general, you can count these draws as an extra out or two. For example,

Your Cards			The Board:

In this case, the chance of getting runner-runner hearts for a flush is 4%, which is equivalent to just under two outs.

Position

If you don't have position in the hand, fold even "promising overcards." That is, if people are left to act behind you, you may be facing later raises when you just wish to see a cheap turn card.

Conclusion:

Check-fold when you missed the flop (unless its a good time for a pure bluff). But if the pot is large and you have two overcards with a possible runner-runner flush or straight, then calling or betting might be the right move. This is especially true if you are last to act.

Go to the "Missed Flop" Tutorial