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Limit Holdem: Missed Flops and Overcards

(go to part 2)

 

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At a full low-limit table, the best way to save money is to fold when you miss the flop. Money saved is money made.

Check-Fold when you miss the flop.

How do I know I missed the Flop?

If you have no pair, no flush or flush draw, and no straight or straight draw, then you missed the flop. Your chances of winning versus multiple opponents is very small. So fold.

When not to check-fold when you missed the Flop

  1. When you think you have the best hand.
  2. When you think a bluff can win the hand with acceptable certainty.
  3. When you calculate the cost of calling is smaller than the potential benefit.

1) When you have the best hand

It is very unlikely that you have the best hand if you have a high card hand with no reasonable draws unless you are facing only one or two opponents.

If you are facing one or two opponents, you need to evaluate your hand and the texture of the flop.

Your hand isn't likely worth betting for value unless you have at minimum an Ace or King high.

Your hand could be best if the flop is low, has no ace, is paired and shows no obvious straight draws.

That all said, it is usually far safer to simply assume you are beat, than assuming that your high-card hand is good.

2) When to bluff

You missed the flop and you are facing one or two reasonably rational opponents...this is a good time to bluff. It is especially good if you are last to act and they have checked to you. They seem likely to fold.

If you think you could actually have the best hand, and the situation seems good for bluffing, you can "semi-bluff" with some authority. Fire out a bet and if you get called you have something to fall back on.

One thing to keep in mind is that bluffs generally need to work way less than 50% of the time to make money.

This is because the bluff is much smaller than the pot. All you have to lose is the bluff amount. But you have the whole pot to win. For example, a $1 bluff in an attempt to win a $5 pot only has to work 1/6th of the time (less than 20% of the time!) to break even.

To work it out:

Five out of Six times your bluff fails and you lose $1. (a total loss of $5)

One out of Six times your bluff works and you win $5. (a total win of $5)

So it is a break even proposition even if your bluff doesn't work five out of six times! If it works more often than that you make that money as profit.

Still, bluffing versus more than three opponents or extremely loose opponents isn't generally a good idea. You need everyone to fold!

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