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Outs and Draws and the Magical Rule of Four
Outs and Draws (and the magical rule of four)
Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule of Calling Wonders of Betting and Raising
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Johnny sits back and ponders his hand. He needs one more spade for a flush. He makes a quick count of the remaining spades. There are nine spades left in the deck. He multiplies nine by four and he decides he has a 36% chance of hitting his flush. Meanwhile, up in the broadcast booth, Howard enters the hand into the Poker-Tronic 5000 supercomputer and analyzes ten million hands. He announces that Johnny has a bit better than a 35% chance of hitting his flush. Does Johnny know magic? Is this just a special case? No and No! It is called the rule of four, and is a simple way to decide what your odds are of hitting your draw with two cards to come.
The Rule of Four With two cards to come... Count the number of cards that will help you (called outs) Multiply it by four. This gives your percentage chance of making you hand!
For the next card to fall... Count the number of cards that will help you (called outs) Multiply it by 2.2. This gives your percentage chance of making you hand!
When you have these rules down, move on to Odds and Wagers If you just want some quick and dirty answers as when to call or raise with draws go to Rules of Thumb for Drawing. |
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