Introduction: Odds and Holdem

Outs and Draws (and the magical rule of four)

Odds and Wagers

Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule of Calling

Important Calling Examples

Betting and Raising

Wonders of Betting and Raising

Making Estimates

General Points

Rules of Thumb for Drawing

So, you are probably thinking "yeh I can use that rule of four" but the other stuff...do they allow slide rules at poker tables?

We will now outline a cost/benefit analysis and how it can be easy to use at a real table.

Feel free to read along or skip to the bottom line with no negative effect.

We already know:

• Your potential benefit = the size of the pot multiplied by the chances of winning the pot

So rearranging that statement with basic algebra, and restating it in basic english, we can determine the size of the pot you need:

• the size of the pot needed = your required benefit / chances of winning the pot

We also know, that for the break-even case your required benefit will equal your cost.

• the size of the pot needed to break even = cost / chances of winning the pot

where your cost is how much you need to bet.

So, if you are deciding whether you should call, you need to look at the size of the pot, the size of the bet, and your chances of winning the pot:

the size of the pot needed to break even = the size of the bet / chances of winning the pot

Thus, you should call if the actual pot size is larger than what you need to break even on your wager.

For example, if it costs you $1 to call, the pot is $10, and you estimate using the rule of two-point-two that you have a 33% chance of hitting your draw (33% is .33 in decimal terms) and winning the pot.

the size of the pot needed to break even = $1 / .3333 = $3.00

But that math is hard to do in your head!

So lets use a little math trick and multiply rather than divide.

a little math trick

we are dividing by a fraction, so we can multiple by the inverse of that fraction to get the same value.

the size of the pot needed to break even = $1 / (1/3) = $1 * (3/1)

To make it even simpler we can keep percentages and say...

the bottom line--Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule