Introduction: Odds and Holdem

Outs and Draws (and the magical rule of four)

Odds and Wagers

Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule of Calling

Important Calling Examples

Betting and Raising

Wonders of Betting and Raising

Making Estimates

General Points

Rules of Thumb for Drawing

1. The size of the pot needed to break even on a call = (100 times the size of the call) / (chances of winning).
2. Bet or raise if... your chance of winning > 1/(number of calling opponents).

When you read this, you notice it involves a factor "chances of winning the pot." This is often the tricky part, and the part that causes Gus Hanson pain while he shuffles his chips...

what are the chances of winning the pot?

If we don't have the nuts, or are drawing to them, this is a difficult issue and the one every poker player agonizes over because your opponents' cards are unknown.

There are a number of ways to look at your chances of winning. They all must rely upon assumptions and human (flawed!) reasoning.

The most common system involves:

1. evaluation of the strength of one's hand (based upon experience)
2. insight into your opponent's holdings based upon their betting pattern and past actions
3. chances your hand will improve and how likely that improved hand is to win the hand. This is easiest if your hand will improve to the nuts or a near-lock. We have provided detailed examples on how to do these calculations at the table.

Unfortunately, the first two are difficult to teach. How strong is your pair of aces with a jack kicker? The texture of the board, knowledge of your opponents and how they have bet are all highly complex factors.

Tilted Donkey's Interactive Tutorials give you a feel for these issues. This will give you a step up as you aquire the necessary expertise without playing hundreds of thousands of hands of limit holdem...and become an expert at evaluating your chances of winning the pot.

But remember you chances of winning the pot isn't the only important thing--the size of the pot, the size of the bet, and the number of opponents are all equally important.

Think rationally, as outlined in the two equations at the top of this page and you will avoid many troubles, even if your estimate of your winning the hand is a bit off.

In the future we will write a detailed section on how pros "put opponents on a range of hands" and then calculate the chances of beating that range of hands. Until that time and beyond you need to 'think like a poker player.' Check out some general tips.