Introduction: Odds and Holdem

Outs and Draws (and the magical rule of four)

Odds and Wagers

Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule of Calling

Important Calling Examples

Betting and Raising

Wonders of Betting and Raising

Making Estimates

General Points

Rules of Thumb for Drawing

Lets use Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule and the Rule of Four to determine whether you should call in a number of examples. (The following extends the examples from Outs and the Rule of Four, which you should read first).

Example: Nut Flush Draw at the Turn

Situation: You are playing $2/$4 limit holdem. At the turn you have the nut flush draw. There are two opponents remaining, the first player bet and the second called. The pot is currently $22.

Your Cards			The Board:

Should you call? Use Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule.

the size of the pot needed to break even =

(100 times the size of the call) / (chances of winning the pot)

The Size of the Call : You are last to act at the turn. You need to call for $4. Thus, the size of the call is $4.

Chances of winning the pot are based upon you hitting the flush draw, because if a spade comes, you will win the pot. Use the rule of 2.2

Count of the remaining spades that will make the flush:

There are nine helpful cards left in the deck.

Multiplies 9 (outs) by 2.2 and you're about an 20% chance of hitting the flush on the next card and winning the pot.

Substituting:

the size of the pot needed to break even =

(100 times the size of the call) / (chances of winning the pot)

= $4 * 100 / 20 = $20

Thus the pot needs to be $20.00 or larger to make your call worthwhile. The current pot is $22.00 so the correct play is to call.

Assumptions:

1. This is actually the worst possible case in one regard, because we are assuming the pot gets no larger after you hit your flush. The ultimate pot will be greater than $22, giving you better odds.
2. This is actually the best possible case in another regard, because it is assumed you will win when you hit your flush draw. The queen or three of spades would pair the board, and make the flush. But with a paired board, a fullhouse could beat your flush.
3. A final assumption is that your costs won't be inflated by raises behind you. In this case you act last, so you are sure that won't happen.

Many times these assumptions can be ignored, because they cancel out or skew slightly in your favor. But be careful if you are drawing to a fairly weak hand. In that case you need to take into account you might not win, even if you hit your hand.

Example: Gut-Shot Straight Draw at Flop

Situation: You are playing $2/$4 limit holdem. You are at the flop with a gut-shot straight draw. There are two opponents remaining, the first player bet and the second called. The pot is currently $8.

Your Cards			The Board:

Should You call?

Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule.

the size of the pot needed to break even =

(100 times the size of the call) / (chances of winning the pot)

The size of the (flop) bet is $2.

The chances of winning, depends on whether you hit the straight or not.

Count of the cards (your outs) that will make the straight:

There are four helpful cards (the jacks) left in the deck.

Multiplies 4 (outs) by 2.2 and you have a 9% chance of hitting the straight (and presumably winning). See the side-bar for why we use the rule of 2.2 and not the rule of 4 in this example.

Substituting:

the size of the pot needed to break even =

(100 times the size of the call) / (chances of winning the pot)

= ($2 * 100) / 9 = 22.22

Thus the pot needs to be $22.00 or larger to make your call worthwhile. The current pot is $8.00 so it is an easy fold.

There will be many more examples in our tutorials and write-ups, it is important you get used to making these quick calculations. It will get easier over time.

Now find out why Betting and Raising needs to be thought of differently than calling.