Introduction: Odds and Holdem

Outs and Draws (and the magical rule of four)

Odds and Wagers

Tilted Donkey's Pot Size Rule of Calling

Important Calling Examples

Betting and Raising

Wonders of Betting and Raising

Making Estimates

General Points

Rules of Thumb for Drawing

Now that we have drilled into your head that "the size of the pot matters" it is time to tell you that sometimes it doesn't!

The size of the pot doesn't matter if you are thinking about betting and raising and you know at least one opponent will call you.

In such a case, all that matters is your chances of winning and the number of opponents who you believe will call.

Bet or raise if

your chance of winning is greater than (1 / number of calling opponents)

This is independent of the size of the pot.

You express your chances of winning as a decimal. (For help with converting percentages to decimals visit this web site)

For example, you think you have a 50% (=.5) chance of winning the hand and you have three opponents you believe will call.

Your chances of winning are .5

And 1/(number of calling opponents) = 1/3 = .33

Because .5 > .33 then you should be betting or raising.

A real example:

Situation: You are playing $2/$4. You are at the turn with the nut flush draw. There are four opponents remaining, the first player bet and the other three called. It is your turn to act. The pot is currently $40.

Your Cards			The Board:

Should you raise?

First calculate your chances of winning. They are largely based upon you hitting the flush draw, because if a spade comes, you will win the pot. Use the rule of 2.2

Count of the remaining spades that will make the flush:

There are nine helpful cards left in the deck.

Multiplies 9 (outs) by 2.2 and you're about an 20% chance of hitting the flush on the next card and winning the pot.

Second, estimate the number of callers you will have. With four players remaining that have already bet or called it is likely they would all call your raise. So that means 1/(number of calling opponents) = 1/4 = .25

Putting it together

chance of winning < 1/(number of calling opponents)

That is, .2 < .25

So you should not raise. (But we know from a similar example earlier, it is a call)

Open-Ended Straight Draw at the Flop

You are playing $2/$4. You are at the flop with an open straight draw. There are four opponents remaining, the first player bet and two others called. It is your turn to act. The pot is currently $16.

Your Cards			The Board:

Should you raise?

First calculate your chances of winning.

Count of the cards that will make the straight:

There are eight helpful cards left in the deck. Any of the four fives, or four tens will make the straight.

Multiplies eight (outs) by four and you have a 32% chance of hitting the straight.

Second, estimate the number of callers you will have. With four players remaining it is possible they all might call your raise, especially the ones who have bet and called already this round. Assume one player will fold, perhaps. So that means 1/(number of calling opponents) = 1/3 = .33

Putting it together

chance of winning = 1/(number of calling opponents)

That is, .32 = .33

So you could raise. (and if all four opponents call it will be profitable). In addition, they all might fold or you may get a free card....

when pot size does matter